芳烃橡胶早报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, with some near - end TA devices under maintenance,开工 decreasing, polyester load rising, inventory decreasing, basis strengthening slightly, and spot processing fees improving. PX domestic operation rate increases while some overseas devices reduce load. TA is expected to maintain high maintenance, downstream shows no obvious pressure, and with India's revocation of BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based production increases load, coal - based production has some maintenance and load reduction, overall operation rate drops, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates. In the future, inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and there are short - term opportunities for selling put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - end device operation is stable, production and sales improve slightly, inventory is basically flat. In the future, demand remains stable, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Data Changes: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, crude oil decreased by 0.9, PTA spot price remained unchanged, polyester price decreased by 45, PTA processing fee increased by 12, and inventory increased by 3606. The basis increased by 5, and production and sales increased by 0.95 [2]. - Device Changes: Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [2]. - Outlook: TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, and there are opportunities for positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - Data Changes: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, MEG outer - market price increased by 4, inner - market price increased by 30, coal - based profit increased by 30, and overall load remained unchanged [2]. - Device Changes: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [2]. - Outlook: Inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, short - term put - selling opportunities exist, and the long - term pattern is weak [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Data Changes: On 2025/11/25 compared with the previous day, the price of 1.4D cotton - type increased by 35, short - fiber profit increased by 25, and pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 35 [2]. - Device Changes: No device maintenance information [2]. - Outlook: Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the long - term pattern may weaken, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Data Changes: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, RU main contract decreased by 195, NR main contract decreased by 125. Weekly, RU main contract decreased by 170, NR main contract decreased by 195 [5]. - Key Factors: National explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping [5]. - Strategy: Wait and see [5]. Styrene - Data Changes: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, styrene (CFR China) remained unchanged, styrene (Jiangsu) increased by 10, and styrene domestic profit increased by 5 [8]. - Outlook: No outlook information provided [8].