Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, recent supply reduction is greater than expected, polyester load is firm, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand. The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. - For MEG, the arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester factories made bids. Individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. This week, the negotiation and transaction were around 01 with a discount of 40 - 45, and the price negotiation range was around 4605 - 4655. There were transactions around 01 - 35 to 40 in mid - and late - December. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 43 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4635, the basis of the 01 contract is - 21, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [6]. - Main positions: The net long position is decreasing, showing a positive tendency [5]. - Expectation: The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Tuesday, the MEG price fluctuated within a wide range, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot negotiation and transaction were around a premium of 28 - 31 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the MEG futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot basis weakened significantly. Today, the low - end spot basis was traded at a premium of 14 - 15 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, in the morning, the external MEG price was high, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 464 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the external price weakened slightly, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 461 US dollars/ton. In addition, there was an appropriate amount of Taiwan tender cargo traded around 467, with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 3918, the basis of the 01 contract is 45, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared with the previous period, which is a negative factor [8]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [8]. - Main positions: The net short position is increasing, showing a negative tendency [7]. - Expectation: The arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus - No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9.000 to 584.500 US dollars/ton. The spot price of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) decreased by 17.000 to 824 US dollars/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 4630 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic MEG decreased by 10.000 to 3900 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester POY decreased by 75.000 to 6550 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D decreased by 50.000 to 6800 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY decreased by 25.000 to 7850 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber increased by 5.000 to 6295 yuan/ton [13]. - In the futures market, TA01 decreased by 24.000 to 4656 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 18.000 to 4706 yuan/ton, TA09 decreased by 18.000 to 4668 yuan/ton. EG01 decreased by 11.000 to 3873 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 1.000 to 3961 yuan/ton, EG09 decreased by 12.000 to 4034 yuan/ton [13]. Profit - PTA processing fee decreased by 375.843 to 63.64 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha - based MEG decreased by 436.380 to - 1576.24 yuan/ton. The profit of externally - purchased ethylene - based MEG decreased by 310.478 to - 1302.75 yuan/ton. The profit of methanol - based MEG increased by 46.580 to - 1131.28 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based MEG decreased by 16.500 to - 894.00 yuan/ton [13]. - The profit of POY decreased by 89.580 to 74.55 yuan/ton, the profit of FDY decreased by 64.580 to - 25.45 yuan/ton, the profit of DTY increased by 50.000 to 100.00 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple fiber decreased by 9.580 to - 180.46 yuan/ton [13]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - MEG Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the data of MEG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12].
PTA、MEG早报-20251126
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-26 01:49