大越期货沪铜早报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Supply side has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy loosening; in October, China's manufacturing production slowed down with PMI at 49.0%; copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamental analysis is neutral as supply has disturbances and manufacturing PMI dropped; basis shows a -60 discount to futures, also neutral; inventory increased on November 25 and last week, neutral; the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving down, bearish; the main net position is long but the long position decreased, bullish; overall, copper price will oscillate at a high level [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation, while specific positive and negative factors are not detailed [3] Daily Summary - The table shows data on location, mid - price, change, type, total quantity (tons), and increase/decrease, but specific data is not fully filled in [5] Exchange Inventory - The topic is mentioned but no specific content is provided [10] Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [14] CFTC - The topic is mentioned but no specific content is provided [16] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance; the China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [18][20]