大越期货尿素早报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, while industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year - on - year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is picking up, industrial demand is based on demand, and new production capacities are coming on stream, increasing supply - side pressure. Exports have improved, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 0, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The industrial demand is based on demand, agricultural demand is rising, and improved exports are boosting market sentiment. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Factors: Export improvement is a bullish factor [5]. - Negative Factors: Domestic oversupply and new production capacity launch are bearish factors [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand are the main logics [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (-10), Shandong spot is 1630 (-10), Henan spot is 1640 (0), and FOB China is 2834 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1630 (-8), the basis is 0 (-2), UR05 is 1701 (-10), and UR09 is 1716 (-6) [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), the number of warehouse receipts is 7302 (-268), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.437 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 100,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 million tons | - | 19.5681 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 236,600 tons | 24.0519 million tons | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 378,600 tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 378,300 tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 357,200 tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 446,200 tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 446,500 tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 514,000 tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]