沪锌期货早报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai Zinc futures are expected to experience a fluctuating downward trend, specifically for the ZN2601 contract [2][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,480, with a basis of +120, also a bullish factor [2]. - On November 25th, LME zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 48,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 822 to 73,819 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, a neutral signal [2]. - The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing, a bearish factor [2]. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 25th - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on this day totaled 146,121 lots, with a total trading value of 1.63291271 billion yuan. The open interest was 190,891 lots, a decrease of 2,396 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 25th - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,430 - 22,530 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,250 - 22,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,350 - 22,450 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,520 - 22,620 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - As of November 24th, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.517 million tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to November 17th and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared to November 20th [5]. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 25th - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on this day were 73,819 tons, a decrease of 822 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 25th - The total LME zinc inventory on this day was 48,000 tons, an increase of 575 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 44,950 tons and a cancelled warrant of 3,050 tons, accounting for 6.35% [8]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 25th - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in various regions remained unchanged, with prices ranging from 18,220 - 18,620 yuan/ton [9]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 25th - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 20 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22,100 - 23,100 yuan/ton [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and an increase of 2.88% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 25th - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the 48% grade imported processing fee was 80 US dollars/dry ton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 25th - The total trading volume of members was 129,813 lots, a decrease of 26,325 lots. The total long position was 73,293 lots, an increase of 1,696 lots, and the total short position was 68,587 lots, an increase of 2,605 lots [17]. Short - Term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating trend, closing with a small阳线, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with short positions increasing more. Overall, it was a shrinking - volume fluctuation. The price fluctuated, and while long positions entered actively, short positions suppressed more actively. Therefore, the market may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Technically, the price closed near the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average; the short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak area; the trend indicator rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the long - and short - position forces began to be in a stalemate [18].