大越期货玻璃早报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass market is currently in a weak state. The production profit repair is weak, the supply contraction is less than expected, the downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and the inventory is at a historically high level. The glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 1013 yuan/ton to 1014 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.10%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained at 980 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 33 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, a change of 3.03% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The production profit of glass is not clearly described in the report, but it is mentioned that the production profit repair is weak [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [23][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [28][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.303 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42]. Influencing Factors - Likely to be Bullish: "Coal - to - Gas" in Shahe area and industry cold - repair leading to production loss [4]. - Likely to be Bearish: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises; poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry and cautious attitudes of traders and processors [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply is stable at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are dismal, and the glass factory inventory is rising. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [6].