大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251126

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated November 26, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE and PP are expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, weak downstream demand, and high - neutral industrial inventories [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month. After the China - US leaders' meeting, some restrictions were lifted. OPEC+ adjusted the oil market from undersupply to oversupply, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, and other film demands were mainly for rigid needs. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons, which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, falling downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [4] - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the phased easing of China - US relations; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the economic environment is affected by PMI decline and oil market adjustment. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current PP delivery spot price is 6380, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is neutral [6] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons, which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, average downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [6] - Likely Factors: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and China - US relations easing; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15] Price and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6840, the price of the 01 contract is 6762, down 31. The basis is 78, and the warehouse receipt is 11,701, a decrease of 20. PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons, and social inventory is 471,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6380, the price of the 01 contract is 6317, down 55. The basis is 63, and the warehouse receipt is 15,668, a decrease of 65. PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons, and social inventory is 321,000 tons [8]