白糖早报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises its forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO lowers its prediction from 280 million tons to 100 million tons [4][9]. - The main contract of sugar, 01, has recently made up for losses and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and short - term short positions are advised to take profits and reduce holdings on dips [5][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and an increase in import impact due to the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review There is no information provided about the previous day's review in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In the 24/25 season as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5610, and the basis for the 01 contract is 223, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is negative [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus There is no information provided about today's focus in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, the ISO predicts a production of 1.8177 billion tons and a consumption of 1.8014 billion tons, with a surplus of 163 million tons; StoneX predicts a production of 1.9750 billion tons and a consumption of 1.9470 billion tons, with a surplus of 277 million tons [9][35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugar production in China is expected to increase from 996 million tons to 1170 million tons, the import is expected to remain at 500 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be around 1570 - 1590 million tons [37]. - Import and Price: In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5086 yuan/ton at the end of October 2025, with good import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [4][9]. 3.5 Position Data There is no information provided about position data in the given content.