燃料油早报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then fluctuated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking dropped rapidly. The EW continued to strengthen this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened oscillatingly this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatingly, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujeirah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased [7]. - The expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks strengthened, the prices of external gasoline and diesel dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21, the Singapore basis started to rebound recently [7]. - Global residue has entered an inventory - building cycle. The external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillating pattern. Maintain the idea of shorting the FU01 externally and internally, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downside space of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Index | Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -3.18 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -3.63 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -0.20 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -9.68 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 6.05 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -0.45 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Index | Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -2.60 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 0.83 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -0.25 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -1.80 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.72 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 13.07 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Index | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -1.99 | | FOB VLSFO | -1.29 | | 380 Basis | 0.75 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Price Difference | 2.1 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Price Difference | 0.5 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Index | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -21 | | FU 05 | -16 | | FU 09 | -4 | | FU 01 - 05 | -5 | | FU 05 - 09 | -12 | | FU 09 - 01 | 17 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Index | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -26 | | LU 05 | -13 | | LU 09 | -13 | | LU 01 - 05 | -13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 0 | | LU 09 - 01 | 13 | [6]