大越期货沥青期货早报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, with only the road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane开工率 slightly better. Overall, current demand is below the historical average. [8] - From the cost perspective, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen. [8] - The basis shows that on November 25, the spot price in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - In terms of inventory, social inventory is 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - The market trend suggests that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Supply - side data shows changes in production, capacity utilization, and device maintenance. Demand - side开工率s are generally low. Cost - side processing profits and profit differences have changed, and crude oil is expected to support prices. [8] - Basis: The spot in Shandong is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - Inventory: Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract closes below it. The main positions are net short. [8] - Expectation: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices. [18][19][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis. [22][23] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices. [25][26] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing refining profits. [28][29][30] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can assist in relative - value analysis. [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps understand the price changes in the spot market. [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The historical asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production. [38][39] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the profit relationship between different refining products. [41][42][43] - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the sales situation of asphalt. [45][46] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing supply - side inventory changes. [47][48] - Production Volume: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help understand the overall supply situation. [50][51] - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The historical price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt. [54][56] - Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical production of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is an important part of asphalt supply. [57][58] - 开工率: The historical weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the production activity of the asphalt industry. [60][61] - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can affect the supply of asphalt. [63][64] - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market. [66][67][68] - Social and Factory Inventories: The historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which are important indicators of supply - demand balance. [70][71] - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The historical factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the inventory management of factories. [73][74] - Import - Export Situation - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can affect the domestic supply - demand balance. [76][77] - The historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing import costs. [80][81] - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the refining process. [82][83] - Apparent Consumption: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the overall market demand. [85][86] - Downstream Demand - Infrastructure - related: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction. [88][90] - Mechanical Demand: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the construction activity and demand for asphalt. [92][93][95] - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt: The historical开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt. [97][98] - By - Use Asphalt: The historical开工率s of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the demand for different types of asphalt. [100] - Downstream开工情况: The historical开工率s of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can reflect the demand for asphalt in downstream industries. [101][102][104] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and production, which can comprehensively reflect the supply - demand relationship of asphalt. [106][107]