大越期货菜粕早报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, affected by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and closes higher, driven by soybean meal and technical shock consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Likely to Fall: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2530, and the basis is 99, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is a positive factor [9]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. - Trading Data: From November 17th to 25th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force has decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary - From November 17th to 25th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and the far - month 2605) and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated. The futures price generally showed a downward trend, and the spot price also fluctuated within a certain range [15]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics - From November 14th to 25th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly. From November 19th, the warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [17]. 3.8 Other Information - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the trend. The spot premium has fluctuated slightly. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly. - There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains at zero. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [18][20][23][25][27][35].