Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 8855 - 9065 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Demand from the silicon wafer, battery cell, and component sectors continues to decline, showing overall demand recession. Cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 53895 - 55565 [8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. The main bearish factors are the slow post-festival demand recovery and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 4.76% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains persistently weak. The inventory of crystalline silicon is 271,000 tons, at a low level. Silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss-making state, while components are profitable. The inventory of silicone is 56,300 tons, also at a low level. The production profit of silicone is 768 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive operating rate is 72.18%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 75,200 tons, at a high level. The import loss is 543 yuan/ton, and the freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi are 672.91 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum is 60.6%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On November 25th, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 548,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase. The inventory of major ports is 129,000 tons, a 1.57% increase [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's polysilicon production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for November is forecasted to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a 2.59% decrease from the previous week. Inventory was 187,200 tons, a 1.62% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, battery cell production was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 12.05GW, a 18.02% increase. Currently, production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, component production was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease. The estimated component production for November is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 35.4GW, a 5.35% increase. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon materials is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 25th, the price of N-type dense materials was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -2,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, and is at a historical low [8]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon futures contracts increased slightly. The spot prices of various grades of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased to varying degrees [15]. - The production of some sample enterprises decreased, and the operating rates of some regions remained unchanged [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon futures contracts increased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The inventory of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, while the domestic inventory of components decreased, and the European inventory increased [17]. - The production of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased, and the production of components is expected to decrease [17]. 3. Price, Inventory, Production, and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The price and basis trends of industrial silicon show certain fluctuations over time [19]. - Inventory: The inventory of industrial silicon in warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of sample enterprises, shows different trends over time [25]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications show different trends over time [28]. - Cost: The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions show different trends over time [35]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: The price and basis trends of polysilicon futures show certain fluctuations over time [22]. - Inventory: The total inventory of polysilicon shows different trends over time [62]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The monthly production and operating rate of polysilicon show different trends over time [62]. - Cost: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry shows different trends over time [62]. 4. Supply and Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply and demand balance of industrial silicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in production, consumption, import, and export volumes [37][40]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in supply, consumption, import, and export volumes [64]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products, show different trends over time [43][45]. - The import, export, and inventory trends of DMC show different trends over time [48]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show different trends over time. The demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors also shows different trends [51][54][56]. Polysilicon Downstream - The price, production, inventory, and demand trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components show different trends over time [67][70][73]. - The price, production, inventory, and import/export trends of photovoltaic accessories show different trends over time [76]. - The cost, profit, and power generation trends of photovoltaic components show different trends over time [79][80].
工业硅期货早报-20251126
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-26 02:23