Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. Shorting is not cost-effective. Pay attention to the possibility that the off-season April contract may be overvalued, and focus on the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Pay attention to the actual implementation of cargo volume and price increases [8] - Operation suggestions: Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. Shorting is not cost-effective. Pay attention to the possibility that the off-season April contract may be overvalued, and focus on the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 2. Industry News - From November 17th to November 21st, the China Export Container Transport Market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the long-haul routes showed an adjustment trend, with the comprehensive index declining. On November 21st, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1393.56 points, a 4.0% decrease from the previous period [9] - European routes: The initial value of the eurozone's consumer confidence index in November was -14.2, lower than market expectations, indicating that consumers remain cautious about the economic outlook and consumer demand is still suppressed. The recovery prospects of the European economy still face challenges. This week, the shipping demand lacked further growth momentum, and the spot market booking prices declined. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in Europe (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) was $1367/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean routes: The supply-demand fundamentals are slightly better than those of European routes, and the market freight rates increased slightly. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Mediterranean (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) was $2055/TEU, a 1.3% increase from the previous period [9] - North American routes: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non-farm payrolls report was postponed to this week. The number of new jobs in September was 119,000, better than market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. The weak performance of the employment market indicates that the future US economic outlook is not optimistic. This week, the shipping demand growth was weak, and the market freight rates continued to decline. On November 21st, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and US East (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) were $1645/FEU and $2384/FEU respectively, a 9.8% and 8.3% decrease from the previous period [10] - Middle East situation: After Israel launched an air strike on Gaza, Hamas threatened to end the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli Defense Forces and Shin Bet carried out a coordinated operation in the Gaza Strip, targeting senior Hamas members involved in major attacks, maritime infiltration, tunnel construction, and hostage-taking. The US has informed mediators and partner countries preparing to join the Gaza International Stabilization Force that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will be allowed to resume military operations. The Israeli military carried out multiple air strikes in Lebanon, and the situation may continue to escalate [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | November 24, 2025 | November 17, 2025 | Change | Week-on-Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1639.37 | 1357.67 | +281.7 | +20.7% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 1107.85 | 1238.42 | -130.57 | -10.5% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1,779.7 | 1,792.3 | 1,650.0 | 1,697.4 | -129.7 | -7.29% | 6884 | 6454 | -408 | | EC2602 | 1,576.2 | 1,590.0 | 1,453.5 | 1,501.8 | -122.7 | -7.78% | 51412 | 48279 | 4946 | | EC2604 | 1,141.0 | 1,159.0 | 1,126.4 | 1,140.2 | -14.6 | -1.28% | 5004 | 17016 | 920 | | EC2606 | 1,363.9 | 1,378.4 | 1,338.0 | 1,354.1 | -25.9 | -1.90% | 272 | 1629 | 95 | | EC2608 | 1,481.1 | 1,498.0 | 1,464.0 | 1,471.6 | -17.1 | -1.15% | 171 | 1399 | 74 | | EC2610 | 1,108.1 | 1,113.0 | 1,108.0 | 1,111.3 | -0.1 | -0.01% | 563 | 2556 | 65 | [6] 3.3 Shipping-related Data Charts - The report provides charts on European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][21]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251126
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-26 02:38