建信期货棉花日报-20251126

Report Overview - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile upward trend. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price of machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang was around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton on a legal weight basis, with a few low prices at 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton. The basis of the same quality of spot goods was between CF01 + 1000 - 1350, and a few low prices were within 1000. The mainstream basis of machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang was above CF01 + 900 [7]. - The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market decreased, with fewer new orders. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. High-count yarn maintained a good sales trend, and the price remained stable. The prices of other varieties of yarn decreased slightly, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The market for all-cotton garment greige fabrics remained sluggish, and the inventory level was still rising. The conventional varieties faced intense homogeneous competition due to poor demand, and the demand for some differentiated varieties was also scarce. In the export market, there was a significant shortage of terminal orders, and the competition among greige fabric mills for orders was fierce [7]. - Overseas, as of the week ending November 21, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 1.5066 million tons, accounting for 49.1% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 15% slower than the same period last year. In the domestic market, the purchase of cottonseed in Xinjiang was almost completed, and the daily inspection volume was at a peak. The market's expectation of Xinjiang's cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased with the progress of the purchase. The downstream market remained weak. Last week, the finished product inventory of spinning mills increased slightly, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In some local areas, the sales of some products were relatively good, and the pressure on the finished product inventory of downstream enterprises was not high. Spinning mills made rigid purchases of raw materials. Recently, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts from the 2024/25 season, there were few warehouse receipts from the 2025/26 season. In the short term, supported by cost, it was advisable to try to go long at low prices and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8]. Operation Suggestions - In the short term, supported by cost, try to go long at low prices and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8] 2. Industry News - As of November 23, 2025, a total of 1,044 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the reform plan of the cotton quality inspection system. The cumulative inspection volume was 16,370,365 bales, totaling 3.6958 million tons, an increase of 92,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 16,221,448 bales, totaling 3.6625 million tons, an increase of 91,400 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in inland areas was 77,487 bales, totaling 17,100 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to the cotton market, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/INR exchange rate. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][16]