原油成品油早报-20251126

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices closed lower. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week, and Russia is open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of the crack spread for gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US has rapidly reversed, and the monthly spread of crude oil has declined, showing a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of drilling rigs and fracturing operations in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel. With a supply-demand surplus, the strategy of shorting crude oil from a high level is maintained. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be between $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term focus should be on the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolution plan drafted by the US [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Oil Price Data - From November 19 - 25, 2025, WTI crude oil decreased by $0.89, BRENT increased by $0.26, and DUBAI decreased by $0.17. The SC increased by 0.70, and OMAN decreased by 0.47. The price of Japanese naphtha CFR is unavailable for the change, and the Singapore fuel oil 380CST premium increased by 0.75 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - The initial 28 - point peace plan drafted by the US has been further refined, with only a few differences remaining. The crude oil production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field from November 1 - 23 increased by 8.5% month - on - month but did not reach the planned target. Analysts believe that Russia may not accept the US - Ukraine peace plan. Ukrainian and US delegations have reached an agreement on the terms of a potential peace deal. The Russian Black Sea's Novorossiysk and CPC oil terminals have resumed shipments after a drone attack [3][4]. 3.3 Inventory - For the week ending November 21, US API crude oil inventories decreased by 1.859 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 0.539 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 0.753 million barrels. For the week of November 14, US crude oil exports increased by 1.342 million barrels per day to 4.158 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.028 million barrels to 13.834 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424 million barrels (a decrease of 0.8%), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.533 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels (an increase of 0.13%). From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline dropping by 1.75% to 10.2331 million tons and diesel dropping by 4.25% to 12.2708 million tons. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [4][5].