Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, copper prices first rose and then declined slightly. Downstream consumption remains weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts between copper producers and downstream users is ongoing. The 85,000 - yuan level may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] - Zinc prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [5] - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. With continuous inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and considering the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [6][7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. With high inventory and the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] - Lead prices declined this week. Supply is loose, and demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13][14] - Tin prices increased this week. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it is advisable to hold at low prices near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, and prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [20] - The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated greatly. In the long - term, if energy storage demand remains high and power demand is stable, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [22] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices first rose and then declined slightly. Downstream consumption was weak, and long - term contract negotiations were ongoing. LME copper had concentrated warehouse - receipts, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. The 85,000 - yuan level may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and downstream consumption was acceptable. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply - side TC declined, and there was a new production capacity in November. In December, most smelters' maintenance was expected to reduce production by over 10,000 tons. Demand was weak both at home and abroad. The export window has opened. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [5] Nickel - The price of nickel ore remained stable. The short - term fundamentals were weak, with continuous inventory accumulation at home and abroad. Considering the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [6][7] Stainless Steel - The prices of stainless steel products declined slightly. Supply increased slightly in October, demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs remained stable, and inventory was high. With the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] Lead - Lead prices declined. Supply was loose, and demand was expected to weaken. The contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated, and social inventory began to accumulate. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13][14] Tin - Tin prices increased. The supply - side processing fee was low, and there were some disturbances in overseas production. Demand was mainly rigid. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it is advisable to hold at low prices near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17] Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, and prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [20] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated greatly. The market sentiment declined, and there was news of mine resumption in Jiangxi. The supply - side had high price elasticity, and if energy storage demand remained high and power demand was stable, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [22]
永安期货有色早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-26 02:33