大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side showed that last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase. - On the demand - side, last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. - In terms of cost, the daily - average CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 88,499 yuan/ton, a 1.30% daily decrease, with a profit of 89 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 90,365 yuan/ton, a 3.45% daily decrease, with a loss of 4,041 yuan/ton; the production cost on the recycling side was generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost on the salt - lake side was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. - The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, and maintenance plans, and the start time of industry clearance. [8][9][10][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply and Demand Analysis: The production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend last week, and the predicted changes in production and import volume for next month indicate a complex supply situation. The demand - side inventory of different materials also changed differently, and overall demand is expected to strengthen. - Cost Analysis: Different raw material costs showed different trends, with the salt - lake side having obvious cost advantages. - Market Outlook: Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,560 - 97,240. - Leveraging Factors: The shutdown and production reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. - Negative Factors: The continuous high supply on the ore/salt - lake side with limited decline. [8][9][10][11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Conditions Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different changes. The futures closing prices of lithium carbonate also had certain fluctuations, and the basis of the 05 contract indicated that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and production cost of lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase. - Demand - side Data: The monthly production, export volume, and battery loading volume of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 331,470 tons, a 6.35% increase. - Inventory Data: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.70% week - on - week, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other aspects. [15][17] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore showed a long - term change trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China also changed over time. - Import and Self - sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore changed in different periods. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed different trends in different years. [24] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The supply and demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [26][28] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the total import volume changed over time. - Supply and Demand Balance: The supply and demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [30][35] 3.6 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and production capacity of domestic lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) showed different trends. - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years. - Supply and Demand Balance: The supply and demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [37][39] 3.7 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling materials for lithium carbonate production showed different trends. - Processing Cost Composition: The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene, including energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous expenses, showed different proportions. - Profit of Different Processes: The profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, and other processes showed different trends. [42][44][47] 3.8 Inventory The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods (weekly and monthly) and from different sources (smelters and downstream enterprises) showed different trends. [49] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Cost: The price and cost of lithium batteries, including power batteries and energy - storage batteries, showed different trends in different years. - Production and Export: The monthly production volume, export volume, and monthly cell production of lithium batteries showed different degrees of growth. [52][54] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price and cost of ternary precursors, including different series (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series), showed different trends in different years. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly production volume and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [58][61] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials, including different series (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series), showed different trends in different years. - Production, Inventory, and Trade: The weekly production capacity utilization rate, weekly inventory, and import - export volume of ternary materials showed different trends. [64][66] 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Profit: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends in different years. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The monthly production volume, monthly capacity utilization rate, and annual production capacity of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. [68][71] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production volume, sales volume, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different degrees of growth in different years. - Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles of the Passenger Car Association showed different trends. [76][80]