《黑色》日报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. With the current apparent demand and production levels, inventory reduction can be maintained, but it's necessary to monitor if the current apparent demand is a pulse. Iron water production decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, and production is more likely to decline than increase. Given the revised apparent demand, the inventory pressure is not significant under the weekly apparent demand of 8.74 million tons in November, and there is little need for negative feedback of iron elements [1]. Iron Ore - In the absence of new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. The market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias under the condition of a discounted futures price. The supply of iron ore increased last week with a significant rebound in the arrival volume at 45 ports and a recovery in the global shipment volume. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin slightly declined, the iron water volume slightly decreased, and the restocking demand increased. The production of the five major steel products increased, the inventory continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand rebounded significantly [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The coke futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend during the day and a weak decline at night. The port trade quotation declined. After the fourth round of price increase was fully implemented, there is an expectation of price reduction. The supply - demand of coke has weakened, mainly due to the slowdown of downstream restocking. The strategy is to view it as oscillating and bearish, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and an arbitrage of 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [7]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend. The spot market weakened, showing a resonance decline in futures and spot. The coal price in the Shanxi market decreased in a wider range, and the coking profit was repaired. The strategy is to view it as oscillating and bearish, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150, and an arbitrage of 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10, 10, and 20 respectively compared to the previous day. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also increased [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10, 20, and 20 respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980, and slab price remained unchanged at 3730. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 22 to 3231, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 2 to 3180. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 18 to - 67, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 18 to - 137 [1]. Supply - Daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The production of the five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 849.9 tons, an increase of 1.9%. Rebar production increased by 8.0 to 208.0 tons, an increase of 4.0%, among which electric - arc furnace production decreased by 1.3 to 26.8 tons, a decrease of 4.6%, and converter production increased by 9.3 to 181.2 tons, an increase of 5.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.3 to 316.0 tons, an increase of 0.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 1433.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%. Rebar inventory decreased by 22.8 to 553.3 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.4 to 402.1 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 3.0 to 10.1 tons, a decrease of 22.7%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 33.6 to 894.2 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 14.4 to 230.8 tons, an increase of 6.7%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 10.8 to 324.4 tons, an increase of 3.5% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.5, a decrease of 1.9%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 3.0 to - 51.0, an increase of 5.6%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 9.3% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the new - exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe also increased [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 548.2 to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The weekly global shipment volume decreased by 238.0 to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The weekly average daily ore - handling volume at 45 ports increased by 3.0 to 329.9 tons, an increase of 0.9%. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 46.9 to 15101.54 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 74.8 to 9001.2 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 01 and 05 contracts of coke increased. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal remained unchanged. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 11 to 1086, and the 05 contract increased by 5 to 1184. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 15 to 587 [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons. Coking coal production: The raw coal production decreased by 2.4 to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.8 to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [7]. Demand - Iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 1.3 to 880.6 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.1 to 65.3 tons, an increase of 12.3%, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 622.3 tons, a decrease of 0.0%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.8 to 193.0 tons, a decrease of 2.9%. Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of washing plants increased by 10.4 to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 30.8 to 1038.2 tons, a decrease of 2.94%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 6.9 to 797.1 tons, an increase of 0.9%, and the port inventory decreased by 7.0 to 291.5 tons, a decrease of 2.3% [7]. Supply - demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 5.5 tons, with a change of 0.2% [7].