《能源化工》日报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - Price and Spread: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - Fundamentals: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - Inventory: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - Refined Oil Cracking Spread: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - PX - related Price and Spread: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - PTA - related Price and Spread: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - MEG - related Price and Spread: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - Styrene - related Price and Spread: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - Inventory and Operating Rate: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass Price and Spread: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - Soda Ash Price and Spread: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - Production and Inventory: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - Real Estate Data: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].