广发早知道：汇总版-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock index shows strong resilience, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility. It is advisable to mainly observe the market due to the ongoing repricing adjustment of A - shares after the third - quarter reports, with limited downside risks and shrinking trading volume [4]. - For treasury bonds, the long - term bond is affected by the expected implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemptions, and the curve slightly steepens. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to decline in the short term [11]. - For base metals, the prices of most metals are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, with different influencing factors and price ranges for each metal [12][15][18][20][23][26][30][33][37][41][43]. - For black metals, steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, iron ore is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend, and coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [48][50][53][57]. - For agricultural products, the domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial positive factors [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Tuesday, A - share major indices opened higher and the market recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to 3870.02 points. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the situation of Sino - US relations was discussed. Overseas, the US was making progress in promoting the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3][4]. - Funding: On November 25, the A - share market trading volume increased slightly compared to the previous day. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The domestic stock index is resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility and mainly observe the market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract rose slightly [5]. - Funding: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan in November [5][6]. - Operation Suggestion: The bond market is in a range - bound stage. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data showed divergence. Retail sales growth slowed down, PPI inflation rose, and private - sector employment decreased. The Fed official supported interest - rate cuts, and the market was cautious, with precious metals oscillating [7][8][9]. - Outlook: The long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - Funding: The gold ETF changed little, but the silver ETF had a large - scale inflow of over 250 tons [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping Index: As of November 24, the SCFIS European line index rose 20.7% month - on - month, while the US West route index fell 10.5% month - on - month. As of November 21, the SCFI composite index fell 4% month - on - month [11]. - Fundamentals: As of November 20, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.17% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market was weak. The main 02 contract fell 7.78% [11]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to decline in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 25, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, while the average premium decreased. Downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand procurement stage [12]. - Macro: Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December has returned to 80% [12]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [12][13]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod increased, and the downstream demand showed strong resilience [13]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - Logic: The probability of a December interest - rate cut has increased, and copper prices slightly rose and then fell. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of copper prices [15]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - Spot: On November 25, the spot prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is under pressure [15]. - Supply: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year. It is expected that the supply will remain in surplus in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [16]. - Inventory: The port inventory and factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum factory inventory increased. The total registered warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - Logic: The market oscillated at a low level, and the supply showed signs of contraction. The overall inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the market may bottom out and oscillate [17]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 25, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased. Market activity and actual transactions increased after the price decline [18]. - Supply: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November [18]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High prices restricted downstream demand [18]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory and LME inventory decreased [19]. - Logic: The market showed a high - level position - reduction and correction trend, with a combination of positive and negative factors in the macro and fundamental aspects. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [19]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21100 - 21700 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be further downward space in the short term [19]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 25, the average prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [20]. - Supply: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly in November due to the shortage of scrap aluminum [20]. - Demand: The traditional automobile consumption season is in progress, but the demand transmission is not smooth, and high prices suppress downstream procurement [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased [21]. - Logic: The market showed a high - level correction trend. The cost side was strongly supported, and the supply was restricted by raw materials. The demand was affected by high prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD02 and short on AL02 can be considered when the spread is above 650 [22]. Zinc - Spot: On November 25, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased. The spot purchase was still based on demand, and the transaction was average [23]. - Supply: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased, and the profit of smelters was compressed. It is expected that the output of refined zinc will decline in November [24]. - Demand: The spot premium increased. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were basically stable, and the downstream purchased on dips. The export space was opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price [25]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [25]. - Logic: The fundamentals changed little, and the zinc price oscillated. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand improved structurally. It is expected to continue to oscillate [26]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - Spot: On November 25, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the premium remained unchanged. The market transaction was light [26]. - Supply: In October, the import volume of tin ore and tin ingot showed different trends. It is expected that the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar will increase in November, and the import volume of tin ingot will remain at a low level [27][28]. - Demand and Inventory: In October, the operating rate of solder decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory increased [29]. - Logic: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in South China is relatively stable. It is recommended to maintain a long - position on tin due to strong fundamentals [30]. - Operation Suggestion: A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [30]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 25, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased. The supply of refined nickel decreased, and it was difficult to find discounted spot goods [30]. - Supply: In the capacity expansion cycle, the output of refined nickel is expected to decrease month - on - month but remains at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support [31]. - Inventory: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded - area inventory is stable [31]. - Logic: The market oscillated and recovered. The upstream production reduction and low valuation drove the market. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate and recover [32][33]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 25, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable or increased, and the basis decreased [33]. - Raw Materials: The nickel ore market is stable, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, and the cost support of chromium iron is weakening [34]. - Supply: In October, the output of stainless steel increased. In November, the production is expected to decrease slightly. The supply pressure is still high [35]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - Logic: The market slightly rose, and the spot market purchase price was stable. The macro situation is temporarily stable, the raw material cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure remains. It is expected to oscillate [36]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 25, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The trade volume improved but was still average [37]. - Supply: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The supply is expected to increase, mainly driven by the increase in lithium extraction from spodumene [37]. - Demand: The demand is optimistic. The production schedules of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [38][39]. - Inventory: The total inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other links increased [39]. - Logic: The market was strong. The industry is optimistic about next year, and the market sentiment is bullish. The fundamentals remain strong, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [40]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to mainly observe the market [41]. Polysilicon - Spot Price: On November 25, the spot prices of polysilicon remained unchanged [41]. - Supply: In November, the domestic output of polysilicon is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [41]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [42]. - Inventory: The inventory increased by 4000 tons to 271,000 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased [42]. - Logic: The spot price is stable, the futures price oscillated and rose, and the backwardation structure deepened. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [43]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [43]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price: On November 25, the spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [43]. - Supply: In November, the output of industrial silicon is expected to decrease to about 400,000 tons, mainly due to the production reduction in Southwest China [44]. - Demand: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [44]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory inventory and social inventory increased slightly [44]. - Logic: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [45]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures market strengthened, and the spot price followed. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil remained stable [45]. - Cost and Profit: The prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the price of iron ore was relatively stable. The profit of steel mills was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [46]. - Supply: From January to October, the output of iron elements increased year - on - year. Recently, the molten iron output decreased, and the output of five major steel products increased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand is weak, and the export is at a high level. The apparent demand in November increased compared to October [46]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly, and the inventory reduction is expected to continue [47]. - View: It is expected that the steel price will oscillate within a range. The rebar is expected to oscillate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil is expected to oscillate between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 25, the prices of mainstream iron ore