永安期货集运早报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the price cut in week49 and Maersk's low - opening expectation for week50, the near - month contract disk dropped significantly. The FC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic and follows the spot price, with P1 around 1600 points, and P2 and P3 corresponding to the second half of December. Observe the shipping companies' price increase announcements and implementation [2][13]. - The valuation of the EC2602 contract is moderately low. It's difficult to prove or disprove the off - peak season in the short term, especially when the price support in early December was not ideal. This year, the Chinese New Year is late, and pre - Spring Festival shipments have not fully started, so it's normal that the price has not significantly recovered. The overall cargo volume on the European route this year is good. Although the shipping capacity is high from December to January, if the peak season is gradually realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential, and an overly pessimistic outlook is not given. Subsequently, observe the cargo - booking situation [2][13]. - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling approach on rallies is still recommended [2][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices of FC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on the previous day were 1650.0, 1453.5, 1126.4, 1338.0, 1464.0, and 1108.0 respectively, with price changes of - 7.29%, - 7.34%, - 1.37%, - 1.49%, - 1.62%, and - 0.18% respectively [2][13]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The previous trading volumes of FC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 6884, 51412, 5004, 272, 171, and 563 respectively, and the open interests were 6454, 48279, 17016, 1629, 1399, and 2556 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 403, 4946, 920, 95, 74, and 65 respectively [2][13]. - Month - spread Data: The month - spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 on the previous day were 523.6, 196.5, and 327.1 respectively, with daily changes of - 114.0, - 14.6, and - 99.4 respectively, and weekly changes of - 81.0, 130.2, and - 211.2 respectively [2][13]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - Spot Indexes: The SCHI (European route) index on November 24, 2025, was 1639.37 US dollars/TEU, with a period - on - period increase of 20.75% and a previous - period decrease of - 9.78%. The CCFI index on November 21, 2025, was 1432.96 points, with a period - on - period increase of 2.09% and a previous - period increase of 2.69%. The NCFI index on November 21, 2025, was 951.65 points, with a period - on - period decrease of - 2.83% and a previous - period increase of 7.42% [2][13]. - Recent Spot Situation: The overall average price of week48 was about 2200 US dollars (equivalent to about 1540 points on the disk). In week49, the offline quotes of the GEMINI and PA alliances were between 2300 - 2500 US dollars, and that of the OA alliance was between 2300 - 2600 US dollars, with an average of about 2400 US dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the disk). Subsequently, OOCL reduced the price to 2530 US dollars, CMA to 2645 US dollars, HPL to 2300 US dollars, and OOCL to 2300 US dollars. Maersk opened the cabin at 2200 US dollars for week50 [3][14]. 3.3 Related News - On November 25, local time, the Egyptian Intelligence Bureau Director and the Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire. They agreed to continue to strengthen cooperation and coordination with the US to maintain the cease - fire and implement the second phase of the cease - fire agreement [4][15]. - Maersk's CEO stated that due to the significant progress in Gaza and the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, Maersk will take measures to resume shipping through the Suez Canal. Maersk's spokesperson said that the previous statement by the Suez Canal Authority about resuming navigation in December was false [4][15].