广发期货日评-20251126

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with short - term periodic callbacks and rebounds, and limited downside risks. The market volume is shrinking, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The short - term bond market is in a box - type shock stage. For 10 - year treasury bonds, the active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.83%. Different treasury bond futures contracts have their respective expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended accordingly [2]. - Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - $4150, and may rise to over $4200 if it breaks through the resistance. Silver follows gold but has a larger amplitude, oscillating in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. - The container shipping index (European Line) is in short - term shock downward movement [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with the recovery of apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating with a bullish bias, while coking coal and coke are viewed as bearish in the shock [2]. - Copper prices have risen and then fallen due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations. Other non - ferrous metals have their own expected price ranges and trends [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, various products such as PTA, short - fiber, and others have different market trends and trading strategies recommended [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products like soybean meal, pigs, and others have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Financial - Stock Index: Domestic stock index is resilient. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are repricing. Short - term periodic fluctuations with limited downside. Market volume shrinking, recommended to wait and see [2]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term box - type shock. Different contracts have specific expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold oscillates between $4050 - $4150, may rise above $4200 if breaking resistance. Silver fluctuates more with gold, in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. Black - Steel: Steel prices are expected to stabilize due to apparent demand recovery. Recommend to pay attention to support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils [2]. - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias, in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - Coking Coal: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1050 - 1150 [2]. - Coke: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices rise and then fall due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations, with a reference range of 85500 - 87500 [2]. - Aluminum: With a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, prices may decline further if the position continues to be reduced, with a reference range of 21100 - 21700 [2]. - Other Non - ferrous Metals: Each has its own expected price range and trading suggestions [2]. Energy and Chemical - Petrochemical Products: Different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - Plastics and Chemicals: Products like LLDPE, PP, and methanol have their own market trends and recommended operations [2]. - Building Materials: Glass rebounds with the cold - repair of production lines in Hubei, and other building materials have different trends and trading suggestions [2]. - Rubber: Natural rubber oscillates with limited short - term drivers, and synthetic rubber is expected to face pressure above [2]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: Different products such as soybean meal, corn, and palm oil have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - Livestock and Poultry: Pigs have supply pressure, and eggs have a slow de - capacity process [2]. - Cash Crops: Products like cotton, sugar, and apples have different market trends and trading suggestions [2].