沪铜产业日报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].