瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market presents a situation of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable while the demand weakens slightly due to the off - season. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum - related Contracts: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,720 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,801 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, down 2,225 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.66, up 0.03 [2]. - Other Aluminum Products: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,695 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 21,400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 655 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The basis of alumina was 50 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw Materials: The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap was 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume was 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - Alumina: The alumina production was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The export volume of alumina was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import volume was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume was 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% [2]. - Aluminum Products: The aluminum product output was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.23%, down 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.35%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 9.02%, down 0.0079% [2]. - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.63, up 0.1021 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Data and Energy: The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [2]. - Automobile Market: In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles. Tesla's new car registrations decreased by 48%, BYD's increased by 195%, SAIC Group's increased by 56%, and Toyota's decreased by 10.8% [2]. - Economic News: A Fed governor called for significant interest rate cuts. US PPI and retail sales data showed inflation resurgence and a slowdown in consumption growth. The China - US presidential call had a positive atmosphere [2].