Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - Last week, tire companies had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the production scheduling of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire companies this week may show a restorative increase, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue, restricting the increase in capacity utilization rate [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,360 yuan/ton, and the position volume is 63,030, a decrease of 5,705 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,880 tons, a decrease of 80 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50), from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50) [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, and the spread is - 90 [2]. - Brent crude oil is 62.48 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.89), WTI crude oil is 57.95 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.89), the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton (unchanged), the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 560.88 dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.75), the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton (a decrease of 20), and the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons (an increase of 3,800), and the capacity utilization rate is 72.53% (a decrease of 0.49 percentage points) [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons (an increase of 10,800), and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26% (an increase of 1.01 percentage points) [2]. - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 137,600 tons (an increase of 7,200), and the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.64% (an increase of 2.72 percentage points) [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton (a decrease of 352), the social inventory is 31,500 tons (an increase of 700), the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons (an increase of 780), and the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons (a decrease of 90) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05% (a decrease of 3.63 percentage points), and that of full - steel tires is 62.25% (a decrease of 2.25 percentage points) [2]. - The monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces (a decrease of 720,000), and that of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces (a decrease of 8.57 million) [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days (an increase of 0.69), and those of semi - steel tires are 45.86 days (an increase of 0.5) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices restarted, and domestic production increased restoratively. Recently, the raw material buyers actively followed up, and the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, the raw material buyers actively followed up, the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, the supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources increased, but the spot resources remained tight. High - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and private enterprises' price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up, with some transactions weakening [2].
瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251126
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-26 09:10