瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Recently, the strong iron ore price, positive macro - factors, and larger reduction of short positions in near - month contracts supported the steel price to run strongly. However, short positions in far - month mainstream contracts increased significantly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross at a high level. It is expected that the price may consolidate in a range in the short - term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position volume was 1,200,700 lots, down 100,338 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 72,292 lots, down 25,719 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 17 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,519 tons, down 7,773 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,364 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 181 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 15,050.88 million tons, down 75.04 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 43.33 million tons, up 7.30 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, up 0.25 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 116.1 million tons, down 0.56 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, down 0.26 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.59%, up 1.74 percentage points; the inventory in sample steel mills was 153.32 million tons, down 7.10 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,475 million tons, up 41 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 928 million tons, down 64 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 652,939 million square meters, down 4,359 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 49,061 million square meters, down 3,662 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 39,645 million square meters, up 292 million square meters [2] Industry News - In mid - November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.43 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.943 billion tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output month - on - month; 17.97 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.797 billion tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.24 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.924 billion tons, a 2.1% increase in daily output month - on - month. Trump said that the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was "very close to being reached", but European leaders were skeptical. White House Press Secretary Levitt said on the 25th that there were still some delicate details in the peace agreement proposed by the US to end the Ukraine crisis, but these problems were not insurmountable [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]