铂钯期货上市首日策略

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures on the GFIEX are basically at par with the London spot prices. In the long - term, their price trends are highly positively correlated with gold and silver, and their price fluctuations are similar to those of silver. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner. On the first trading day, it is recommended to cautiously go long on the main contracts at low prices, with resistance levels at 425 yuan/gram for platinum and 390 yuan/gram for palladium. Opportunities for spread repair can be grasped if the far - month contracts show a large premium [2][20]. - The supply - demand imbalance of platinum and palladium may ease. The supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to narrow in 2025 and turn into a slight surplus in 2026. The palladium market may still face a supply shortage in 2026, but the gap will be relatively small [3][6]. - The Fed may cut interest rates in December, but the future easing path is uncertain. In 2026, the US and global economic growth is expected to remain stable, which is conducive to the upward movement of platinum and palladium prices [12][13]. - The speculative long - position power is relatively strong. The non - commercial net long positions of platinum and palladium futures have increased, and with the strengthening of external prices, funds are expected to flow back into ETFs [16]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Platinum: In the first three quarters of 2025, the supply was 5.17 million ounces and the demand was 6.01 million ounces, with a gap of about 0.84 million ounces (26 tons). Supply decreased by 4.4% compared to the same period in 2024 due to reduced mining output in major producing areas. Demand decreased slightly, with a decline in the automotive and other industrial sectors but an increase in jewelry and investment. WPIC predicts a deficit of about 0.74 million ounces in 2025, narrowing from 0.97 million ounces in 2024, and a return to balance with a slight surplus in 2026 [3]. - Palladium: According to贺利氏, the total supply in 2025 is expected to decrease by 3.4% to 8.77 million ounces, and the total demand to decrease by 2.1% to 8.78 million ounces, resulting in a deficit of 0.15 million ounces. Supply declined due to reduced mining output in Russia and South Africa, while demand decreased due to a decline in fuel - vehicle production. Metal Focus predicts a continued supply shortage in 2026 but with a smaller gap [6]. - China: As the world's largest consumer of platinum and palladium, China's demand accounts for over 30% of the global total. Platinum imports showed a high - then - low trend this year, indicating stable demand. Palladium imports increased significantly in September, possibly due to US anti - dumping and countervailing investigations on Russian palladium. China's future demand for platinum and palladium is expected to remain strong, supporting prices [8]. 3.2 Fed's December Rate Cut and Future Uncertainty - The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is high, which is positive for risk assets and precious metals. However, falling interest rates may boost the US economy and inflation, suppressing future easing expectations. Due to the government shutdown and economic structural imbalances, Fed officials are divided on their "employment and inflation" goals. Currently, the probability of a 25 - BP rate cut in December has returned to 80%. The economic growth in the US and the world is expected to remain stable in 2026, which is beneficial for platinum and palladium prices [12][13]. 3.3 Fund Sentiment - As of October 14, the non - commercial net long positions of platinum futures were 18,953 contracts, a slight increase of 612 contracts from the previous week, at a relatively high level this year. The non - commercial net long positions of palladium futures were - 1,013 contracts, the highest in nearly three years. ETF holdings have fallen to a low level since October, but funds are expected to flow back as external prices strengthen [16]. 3.4 First - Day Listing Strategy - The listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures are at par with London spot prices. Their price trends will follow external markets and are expected to rise in a volatile manner with the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. On the first trading day, it is recommended to cautiously go long on the main contracts at low prices, with resistance levels at 425 yuan/gram for platinum and 390 yuan/gram for palladium. Opportunities for spread repair can be grasped if the far - month contracts show a large premium [2][20].