《能源化工》日报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operating conditions. Some Iranian plants have started to limit gas and stop production, market sentiment has improved, short - sellers have reduced their positions, and the futures price and basis have both strengthened. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Follow the timing and intensity of gas restrictions [1][2][4]. Rubber - The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the production - reduction and tapping - suspension season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam are yet to subside, providing strong support to the cost side. Overseas shipments are seasonally increasing, and the accumulation of natural rubber inventory suppresses spot prices. Overall demand is weak, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation. Follow the raw material output in the main producing areas during the peak season and macro - level changes [5]. Polyolefins - PDH profits continue to weaken this week. PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Despite the alleviation of some supply pressure from planned maintenance, imported supplies are abundant. Except for agricultural films, other demand is generally weak, and inventory accumulates slightly under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is still under significant pressure [8]. Crude Oil - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the decrease in the number of US oil rigs support short - term oil prices, and international oil prices rose slightly overnight. However, under the pressure of continuous OPEC+ production increases and a record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and short - term Brent crude oil should be watched for support at $60 per barrel. Pay attention to the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. This week, some plants reduced their loads, leading to a decline in weekly production and a phased reduction in soda ash plant inventory. In the medium term, downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short. Hold short positions entered at high prices this week, and those who have not entered the market should wait and see [12]. - Glass: In the short term, there is still some rigid - demand support during the year - end rush season. However, in the long term, as the peak season ends, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand. After December, the demand side will shrink, and glass prices will be under pressure. The real - estate market is still at the bottom of the cycle, and the glass industry needs to clear its inventory. The 01 contract is still under pressure as the delivery month approaches, but it is expected to be strong in the short term, with a 1 - 5 reverse - spread strategy [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: There is still some pressure on the supply - demand side. Next week, the regional supply in East China will decline, but monthly contracts will be signed. If the futures price continues to weaken, it is estimated that the spot price in East China will also decline. The Shandong market is unclear, and the unloading situation of major downstream products and the trend of liquid hydrogen need to be monitored. Overall, demand support is weak, and in the long term, supply - demand pressure remains. It is expected that caustic soda prices will run weakly [13]. - PVC: The spot market continues to be weak. This week, the operating rate on the supply side will increase, while demand remains sluggish. Pay attention to the release of Asian contract prices in December. From November to January of the next year is the traditional off - season, and the reduction in real - estate demand in the north is a negative factor. Although India has cancelled the BIS certification policy for imported PVC, the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties means that external demand is difficult to increase. The supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, and prices are not optimistic. It is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drivers are limited, but in the medium term, the supply - demand outlook is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction is greater than expected, and polyester operating rates are expected to decline later. After India cancelled the BIS certification, PTA exports are expected to increase. In December, the supply - demand outlook is tight, but in the first quarter, it is generally loose. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. TA is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and a short - term low - level positive spread can be considered for TA spreads. - Ethylene Glycol: Support is acceptable, but there are many maintenance plans for coal - based ethylene glycol plants. North American and Middle Eastern ethylene glycol operating rates are high, and import volumes are expected to be significant. Port inventory has limited downward space, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to go short on the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand remains weak. Although the spot processing fee has been compressed, there is still profit, and factory inventory pressure is low, so supply remains high. Terminal demand is seasonally weak in November. It is expected that the absolute price has limited drivers, and the processing fee will continue to be compressed. The strategy is the same as for PTA, and the processing fee on the futures market should be shorted when it is high. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Domestic supply is gradually increasing, while demand is weak during the off - season. The social inventory of bottle - grade polyester chips is likely to enter a seasonal accumulation period, and the price will follow the cost side. The processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is the same as for PTA, and it is recommended to short the processing fee on the main futures contract, which is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan per ton [14]. Benzene - Styrene - Although the short - term supply - demand outlook for styrene has improved, with the recovery of industry profits and the expectation of weakening demand, combined with weak cost - side support, the rebound space of styrene is limited, and overall drivers are insufficient. The EB01 contract should be treated as a shock consolidation. Follow the changes in styrene plants and actual export transactions [15]. LPG - There is no clear view statement in the report, but data shows that LPG futures prices have risen, while the spot price in South China has fallen. Inventory has increased, and the operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries have changed [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2605 futures prices increased, the MA15 spread widened, and the basis in Taicang remained unchanged. Spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and regional spreads changed [1]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, port inventory decreased by 7.83%, and social inventory decreased by 5.49% [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the overseas operating rate increased slightly, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed [2]. Rubber - Price and Spread: Spot prices of some rubber varieties decreased, and the basis and monthly spreads changed. - Fundamental Data: The production of some countries in September changed, the operating rates of automobile tires decreased, and domestic tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in October decreased. The cost of dry - rubber production in Thailand decreased, and the profit increased. Inventory increased, and the出库 and入库 rates of dry - rubber in Qingdao changed [5]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: Futures prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 changed. Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the basis of some varieties changed [8]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and PP trader inventory decreased [8]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The PE and PP device operating rates decreased, the PP powder operating rate increased, and the downstream weighted operating rates of PE and PP increased slightly [8]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices changed, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 changed. Refined - oil product prices and spreads also changed, as did refined - oil cracking spreads [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices changed slightly, and the basis changed [12]. - Supply: Soda ash well - work efficiency and weekly production decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass decreased, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increased slightly [12]. - Inventory: Glass terminal inventory increased, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and the number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories increased [12]. - Real - Estate Data: Real - estate new - start area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased year - on - year [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: Prices of caustic soda and PVC varieties changed slightly, and spreads such as SH2605 - 2601 and V2605 - V2601 changed [13]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: Overseas quotes for caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [13]. - Supply: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profits of some production methods decreased [13]. - Demand: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume decreased [13]. - Inventory: Caustic soda factory inventory increased, and PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed [14]. - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. changed, and cash flows of some products changed [14]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX price increased, and PX spot price in RMB decreased. Spreads such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha changed [14]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: PTA spot and futures prices increased, and PTA processing fees decreased [14]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: MEG spot and futures prices changed, and MEG spreads and cash flows changed [14]. - Operating Rate Changes: Operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries changed [14]. Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. Pure - benzene prices and spreads changed [15]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and styrene spreads and cash flows changed [15]. - Downstream Cash Flows: Cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [15]. - Inventory: Pure - benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [15]. - Operating Rate Changes: Operating rates of some industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industry chain changed [15]. LPG - Price and Spread: LPG futures prices increased, and spot prices in South China decreased. Spreads such as PG12 - 01 and PG12 - 02 changed [16]. - External Market Prices: FEI and CP forward - contract prices increased [16]. - Inventory: LPG storage capacity ratio, port inventory, and port storage capacity ratio increased [16]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed [16].