Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. With the current apparent demand and production level, inventory reduction can be maintained, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the current apparent demand is a pulse. The iron water output has decreased, and the production is likely to fall rather than rise. Based on the upward revision of the apparent demand, under the weekly apparent demand of 8.74 million tons in November, the inventory pressure is not significant, and there is little need for negative feedback on iron elements. However, as the raw materials have not stabilized, the steel price is expected to decline within the range, with the reference range for rebar being 3,000 - 3,200 and that for hot - rolled coils being 3,250 - 3,400 [1][3]. Summary by Directory - Steel Price and Spread: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures have shown different degrees of decline. For example, the rebar spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan to 3,210 yuan, and the rebar 10 - contract price decreased by 17 yuan to 3,155 yuan [1]. - Cost and Profit: The costs of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu decreased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different changes. For instance, the profit of rebar in South China increased by 15 yuan to 108 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 5 yuan to - 62 yuan [1]. - Supply: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 15.5 tons to 849.9 tons, an increase of 1.9%. The output of rebar increased by 8.0 tons to 208.0 tons, an increase of 4.0% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 44.2 tons to 1,433.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%. The inventory of rebar decreased by 22.8 tons to 553.3 tons, a decrease of 4.0%, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.4 tons to 402.1 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decrease of 8.0%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 33.6 tons to 894.2 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 14.4 tons to 230.8 tons, an increase of 6.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 10.8 tons to 324.4 tons, an increase of 3.5% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore futures showed a relatively strong performance. In the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. In the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, the pig iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mill restocking demand increased. The inventory of ports increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. It is expected that the iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market and will operate in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see on a unilateral basis [4]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - Related Price and Spread: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 3.3 yuan to 846.9 yuan, an increase of 0.4%, and the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder increased by 0.3 yuan to 49.9 yuan, an increase of 0.6% [4]. - Spot Price and Price Index: The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly. For instance, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 3 yuan to 798 yuan, an increase of 0.4% [4]. - Supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2,817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%, and the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3,278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11,130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 3.0 tons to 329.9 tons, an increase of 0.9%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6,554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 149.3 tons to 7,199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. - Inventory Change: The inventory at 45 ports (weekly, compared with Monday) increased by 46.9 tons to 15,101.54 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 74.8 tons to 9,001.2 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1 day to 20 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Coke: The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the spot price had a downward expectation after the fourth - round price increase. The supply side saw a decrease in the coking coal price in the Shanxi market, and the coking profit was somewhat repaired. The demand side was affected by the decline in steel mill profits and iron water output, which put pressure on the coke price. The overall inventory decreased slightly, and the coke supply - demand relationship weakened. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatile and bearish market, with the reference range being 1,550 - 1,700, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coke [7]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures showed a volatile and weak trend, and the spot price declined. The supply side was affected by the temporary shutdown of some mines and the increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance. The demand side saw a weakening of restocking demand due to the decline in steel mill and coking plant production. The overall inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatile and bearish market, with the reference range being 1,050 - 1,150, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal [7]. Summary by Directory - Coke - Related Price and Spread: The prices of various coke products decreased to different extents. For example, the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 11 yuan to 1,613 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%, and the coke 01 - contract price decreased by 24 yuan to 1,643 yuan, a decrease of 1.5% [7]. - Coking Coal - Related Price and Spread: The prices of various coking coal products also decreased. For instance, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 23 yuan to 1,200 yuan, a decrease of 1.9%, and the coking coal 01 - contract price decreased by 2 yuan to 1,085 yuan, a decrease of 0.1% [7]. - Supply: The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 tons to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.4 tons to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.8 tons to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [7]. - Demand: The iron water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 tons to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons [7]. - Inventory Change: The total coke inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 880.6 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.1 tons to 65.3 tons, an increase of 12.3%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 622.3 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 10.4 tons to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 30.8 tons to 1,038.2 tons, a decrease of 2.9%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 6.9 tons to 797.1 tons, an increase of 0.9% [7]. - Supply - Demand Gap Change: The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 5.5 tons [7].
《黑色》日报-20251127
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-27 01:18