建信期货棉花日报-20251127

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed-price quotations for machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) were mostly around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan on a legal weight basis, with a small number of low prices between 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. The lower basis for the same-quality spot was CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher sales basis was CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang (excluding light speckled stains, double 29/impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 900 and above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened, with new orders decreasing. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. High-count yarns maintained a good sales trend recently, with prices basically stable. The prices of other types of yarns were stable with a slight decline, and some manufacturers reduced prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The all-cotton garment greige fabric market remained sluggish. The inventory level was still on the rise. Due to poor demand, there was severe homogeneous competition for conventional varieties, and the performance of some differentiated varieties was also mediocre, with scarce demand. In the export market, there was an obvious shortage of terminal orders, and the competition for orders among greige fabric mills was fierce [7]. - Overseas market: As of the week ending October 9, the weekly signing volume of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/26 season was 35,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 21% and an increase of 1% compared with the average level of the previous four weeks. Among them, Vietnam signed 18,500 tons, and China signed 3,800 tons. Domestic market: As of November 25, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide reached 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Currently, there has been little change in the market order volume downstream. The operating rate of yarn mills remained stable, and the inventory pressure of downstream finished products was not high. Spinning mills made purchases of raw materials based on rigid demand. With limited changes in the fundamentals, it is advisable to try to go long at low prices under cost support and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of November 25, 2025, a total of 1,050 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume nationwide was 17,138,406 bales, totaling 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 16,978,379 bales, totaling 3.8331 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland areas was 82,303 bales, totaling 182,000 tons [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to the cotton market, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian Rupee exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][21]