建信期货多晶硅日报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable, with a consensus on price support from policies and enterprises. In the short - term, the industry lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement. The supply - demand situation will remain loose, and the profit of the industrial chain has concentrated on the polysilicon end. The futures price will operate within the range of the spot price [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the polysilicon main contract showed a strong trend. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,895 yuan/ton, with a 2.93% increase. The trading volume was 330,316 lots, and the open interest was 143,043 lots, with a net increase of 13,966 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The transaction price range of n - type polysilicon re - feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - Future Outlook: The spot price of polysilicon will continue to be stable. In the short - term, the industry lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement. The production of silicon materials in November and December is expected to remain at 120,000 tons, and the production of silicon wafers and solar cells is stable. The supply - demand will remain loose. The weak terminal demand pressure is gradually transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and components continued to decline this week, which also hinders the price increase of silicon materials. There is no actual positive news from the policy side, but the official and enterprise consensus is to emphasize stability. The futures price will operate within the range of the spot price [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 25, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,270 lots, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and all relevant work is progressing steadily. The rumors on the Internet are false information. The association will fight against malicious short - selling and other bad behaviors [5]. - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimated that the production in November was about 118,000 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The production in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]. - The Silicon Industry Branch said that the industrial chain has reached an implicit consensus that if the polysilicon price continues to decline, it may lead to the collapse of the entire industrial chain price system, so enterprises are determined to stabilize the price [5].