原木期货日报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market is currently in a low - level oscillation. Last week, spot prices declined. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, leading to inventory accumulation and significant market pressure. Demand remains resilient. The futures valuation is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support from import costs. Overall, in a weak fundamental situation, the log futures market is expected to operate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On November 26, the price of log 2601 was 765.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.0, down 1.0 (-0.13%); log 2605 was 791.0, down 1.0 (-0.13%). The 01 - 03 spread was - 11.0, up 1.5; the 01 - 05 spread was - 26.0, up 1.5; the 03 - contract basis was - 26.0, up 1.0; the 01 - contract basis was - 15.0, down 0.5 [2]. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices remained stable, except for the 4A small - radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 (-1.43%) to 690 [2]. - External Quotes: The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged on November 28 compared to November 21 [2]. - Import Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 26 was 7.077, down 0.02 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 807.03, down 1.88 [2]. Supply - Monthly Supply: In October, the port freight volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 24.7 (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, up 8 (17.39%) [2]. Inventory - Main Port Inventory: As of November 21, the total inventory in Shandong was 303.0 million cubic meters, up 8.0 (5.68%) from November 14; in Jiangsu, it was 83.18 million cubic meters, down 0.5 (-0.57%) [2][3]. Demand - Daily Average Out - bound Volume: As of November 21, the daily average out - bound volume in China was 6.44 million cubic meters, down 0.12 (-2%); in Shandong, it was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.08 (-2%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.36 million cubic meters, down 0.08 (-3%) [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of expected arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a week - on - week decrease of 7 (54%); the total arriving volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20.1 million cubic meters (48%) [3].