大越期货纯碱早报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a volatile and downward trend in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,140 yuan/ton, with no change; the main basis was - 35 yuan/ton, up 6.06% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 3. Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 221.5 yuan/ton, at a historical low [16] - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.80%. The weekly production was 72.09 tons, including 39.62 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19][21] - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22] 4. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [25] - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 158,100 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [35] 6. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E are provided, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36] Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3] - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]