沪锌期货早报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc may be weak in the short term, but the Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 is expected to oscillate and rebound. The price is near the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is rising while the short - position strength is falling, with the long - and short - position forces starting to stalemate [2][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, which is bullish [2] - The basis is +145 with the spot price at 22,500, which is bullish [2] - On November 26, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 49,925 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,199 tons to 71,620 tons, which is neutral [2] - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2] - The main net position is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 26 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 26 was 151,297 lots, and the trading value was 1.69183407 billion yuan. The open interest was 190,070 lots, a decrease of 821 lots [3] 2.2 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged [4] - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,450 - 22,550 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,240 - 22,340 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,345 - 22,445 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,505 - 22,605 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [4] 2.3 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - As of November 24, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets was 1.517 million tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared with November 17 and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared with November 20 [5] 2.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 26 - The total SHFE zinc warrant on November 26 was 71,620 tons, a decrease of 2,199 tons [6] 2.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 26 - The LME zinc inventory on November 26 was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons [7] 2.6 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary in National Main Cities on November 26 - The price of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 20 yuan/ton [9] 2.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes in the National Market on November 26 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters ranged from 22,100 to 23,100 yuan/ton [12] 2.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production in November was 522,300 tons [15] 2.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade ranged from 2,100 to 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% grade was 70 - 90 US dollars/dry ton [17] 2.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 26 - The total trading volume of members was 151,221 lots, an increase of 22,642 lots; the total long - position was 71,988 lots, a decrease of 662 lots; the total short - position was 70,148 lots, an increase of 1,765 lots [18]