大越期货油脂早报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Category Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and later it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8332, with a basis of 182, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. Later, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8470, with a basis of 30, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil in terms of the MPOB report. Later, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10176, with a basis of 358, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely to be Bullish: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply [5]. - Likely to be Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. Supply - Related - The report provides historical data charts of import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory,菜籽 inventory, and domestic total oil and fat inventory from 2015 - 2025 [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23]. Demand - Related - The report provides historical data charts of soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption from 2015 - 2025 [13][15].