大越期货玻璃早报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories have increased. It is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Production profit recovery is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period; all factors are bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 988 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1037 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 49 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.303 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][41]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors Summary - Bullish factors: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs have led to production losses [4]. - Bearish factors: Real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory [5]. 3.3 Glass Futures Market | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | Shahe Anquan large - plate spot price (yuan/ton) | Main basis (yuan/ton) | | Previous value | 1014 | 980 | - 34 | | Current value | 1037 | 988 | - 49 | | Increase/decrease | 2.27% | 0.82% | 44.12% | [7] 3.4 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 988 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit: No specific data provided, only sources such as Longzhong and Ganglian are mentioned [13][17][15][20]. - Glass production line and output: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period, and the daily melting capacity is 158,100 tons, with the production capacity at a historical low in the same period [23][25]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - Float glass monthly consumption: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470,820 tons [28]. - Housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas: No specific data provided. - Downstream processor operation and order situation: No specific data provided, only the source of Longzhong is mentioned [38]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.303 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][41]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production | Calculation | | | Apparent Supply | Consumption | | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 21 | 112 | - 91 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 22 | 86 | - 64 | 5098 | 5091 | 7 | - 3.59% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 40 | 65 | - 25 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59 | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289 | | 2021 | 5494 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244 | | 2022 | 5463 | 23 | 68 | - 45 | 5418 | 5327 | al | - 0.56% | - 1.57% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84 | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [42]