PTA、MEG早报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction exceeds expectations, polyester load remains strong, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port arrivals this week are moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and some short - process oil - chemical plants face great production pressure. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content found. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, and the spot basis was strong. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 31 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4647, the 01 contract basis is - 37, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net long, long positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, but the price follows the cost - end [5]. - MEG - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and adjusted, and the market negotiation was weak. The basis was weak, and the buying was scarce [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3910, the 01 contract basis is 14, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main force position: Net short, short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: Port inventory may be compressed slightly, but external supply reduction is not obvious. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content found. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents PTA's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows ethylene glycol's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, import, and consumption [13]. - Price and Spread Data: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as basis, inter - month spreads, and profit data [14]. - Inventory Analysis: Displays inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers over the years [44][46][49]. - Operating Rate Data: Presents the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester industries over the years [56][58][60]. - Profit Data: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers over the years [64][67][70].