天胶早报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6] - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 full latex (non - deliverable) decreased on November 26th, and the spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. There is seasonal cancellation of exchange inventory warrants [4][14] - Import: The import volume has declined [20] - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [23][29][32] Basis - The spot price is 14,650, and the basis is - 545, showing a bearish signal. The basis weakened on November 26th [4][35] Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Likely to Fall: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]