燃料油早报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore accelerated to weaken, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking declined rapidly. The EW continued to strengthen this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore oscillated and weakened this week, the monthly spread oscillated and weakened, and the basis strengthened slightly [5]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased [6]. - With the strengthening of the expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of external gasoline and diesel dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21st, the Singapore basis started to rebound recently [6]. - As global residue enters the inventory - building cycle, the external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillating pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - shorting idea at home and abroad, and consider laying out 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [6]. 3. Key Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 354.27 | 342.52 | 345.95 | 339.09 | 348.04 | 8.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 401.58 | 392.05 | 393.07 | 385.63 | 392.49 | 6.86 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -7.11 | -7.70 | -7.70 | -8.01 | -7.60 | 0.41 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 705.27 | 674.04 | 663.55 | 648.85 | 645.56 | -3.29 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -303.69 | -281.99 | -270.48 | -263.22 | -253.07 | 10.15 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 31.62 | 28.61 | 26.56 | 25.67 | 24.29 | -1.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 47.12 | 46.54 | 44.45 | -2.09 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 352.24 | 348.23 | 346.75 | 345.55 | 345.29 | -0.26 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 354.70 | 352.69 | 353.32 | 352.99 | 354.79 | 1.80 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 437.80 | 427.47 | 423.30 | 423.05 | 416.41 | -6.64 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 94.36 | 88.67 | 86.75 | 86.59 | 84.50 | -2.09 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.92 | -7.06 | -6.96 | -7.95 | -8.03 | -0.08 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -260.46 | -228.69 | -218.65 | -217.72 | -208.89 | 8.83 | [3][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 345.42 | 343.36 | 344.02 | 342.03 | 336.87 | -5.16 | | FOB VLSFO | 438.34 | 427.46 | 423.62 | 422.33 | 416.44 | -5.89 | | 380 Basis | -5.25 | -4.55 | -4.00 | -3.25 | -3.45 | -0.20 | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 3.9 | -1.3 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 1.3 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2517 | 2502 | 2512 | 2491 | 2467 | -24 | | FU 05 | 2565 | 2539 | 2554 | 2538 | 2516 | -22 | | FU 09 | 2541 | 2513 | 2520 | 2516 | 2494 | -22 | | FU 01 - 05 | -48 | -37 | -42 | -47 | -49 | -2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 24 | 26 | 34 | 22 | 22 | 0 | | FU 09 - 01 | 24 | 11 | 8 | 25 | 27 | 2 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3139 | 3078 | 3041 | 3015 | 3023 | 8 | | LU 05 | 3145 | 3085 | 3068 | 3055 | 3023 | -32 | | LU 09 | 3160 | 3119 | 3108 | 3095 | 3073 | -22 | | LU 01 - 05 | -6 | -7 | -27 | -40 | 0 | 40 | | LU 05 - 09 | -15 | -34 | -40 | -40 | -50 | -10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 21 | 41 | 67 | 80 | 50 | -30 | [5]