广发早知道：汇总版-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - News: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - Funding: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - Funding: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - Outlook: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - Macro: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - Demand: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - Inventory: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - Logic: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - Spot: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - Supply: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - Logic: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - Supply: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - Inventory: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - Logic: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - Supply: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - Demand: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - Logic: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - Spot: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - Supply: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - Demand: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - Logic: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - Spot: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - Supply: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - Demand and Inventory: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - Logic: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - Operation Suggestion: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - Supply: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - Inventory: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - Logic: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - Raw Materials: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - Supply: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - Inventory: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - Logic: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - Supply: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - Demand: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - Logic: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - Spot Price: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - Supply: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - Logic: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - Supply: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - Demand: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - Logic: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - Supply: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - View: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - Futures: