芳烃橡胶早报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: TA maintains a high - maintenance state, downstream shows no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so TA's inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the cost - end PX has a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long in the positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. - MEG: With supply reduction and high - opening of polyester, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the valuation compression space may be limited. Short - term selling of put options can be considered, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. - Polyester Short Fiber: In the short term, the inventory pressure is limited, but in the long term, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device launches are approaching, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [6]. - Natural Rubber: The national explicit inventory is stable at a non - high level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price Changes: Naphtha price changes from 62.5 to 63.4, PX CFR Taiwan from 558 to 573, PTA inner - market spot from 824 to 833, etc. The PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34) [3]. - Device Changes: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device restarts. Some proximal TA devices are under maintenance, the start - up rate decreases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve [3]. MEG - Price Changes: Northeast Asia ethylene price remains at 730, MEG outer - market price from 452 to 463, etc. The MEG spot basis is around +13 for 01 [6]. - Device Changes: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device restarts; Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Proximal domestic oil - making increases load, coal - making has some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up decreases, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates [6]. Polyester Short Fiber - Price Changes: 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price changes from 6340 to 6385, etc. The spot price is around 6315, and the market basis is around - 100 for 01 [6]. - Device and Market Situation: The device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory is basically flat. The downstream demand is stable, but in the long term, the pattern may weaken [6]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber changes from 1815 to 1825, and the weekly change is - 25. There are also various price spreads and processing profit changes [9]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - Price Changes: Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains at 730, pure benzene (CFR China) from 660 to 685, etc. There are also changes in domestic profits of styrene and its downstream products [12].