大越期货沥青期货早报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. The demand side is generally lower than the historical average level. The cost side indicates that the profit from asphalt processing is in deficit, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken. Overall, the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3017 - 3069 [8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%, and the sample enterprise output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. The demand side shows that the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On November 26, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. The social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. - Expectation: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains stable, and the crude oil is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3017 - 3069 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [17][19]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [47]. - Output: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [50]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: The report shows the historical output trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trend of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [63]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report presents the historical trends of total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [66]. - Social and In - Plant Inventories: The report shows the historical trends of social and in - plant inventories of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70]. - In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The report presents the historical in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73]. - Import and Export Situation: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][79]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Output: The report presents the historical output trend of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment and new local special bonds from 2019 - 2025, as well as the year - on - year change trend of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 - 2024 [88]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 [101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [106].