大越期货PVC期货早报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may continue to be weak. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4463 - 4515 [4][6]. - The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has decreased. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [6]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Likely Positives: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [10]. - Likely Negatives: Rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.83%, with no month - on - month change. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 345,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and the production of ethylene method enterprises was 134,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.07%, with no change month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.03%, with no change month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may continue to be weak [4]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 848.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 3.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 515.89 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2091.15 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - On November 26, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 41 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 315,441 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 240,791 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 74,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.04%. The social inventory was 526,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.3 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85%, showing a neutral situation [6]. 3.2.6 Disk - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [6]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, spreads, inventories, operating rates, profits, and costs of different PVC varieties and contracts [14]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the basis trend, trading volume, price trend, position change trend, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures [16][19][22]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Aspects 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It involves the price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of chlor - alkali in Shandong [25][28][30][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC [38][40]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and the profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also involves real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][45][53]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouse inventory, ethylene method factory warehouse inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [57]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread [60]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [62].