Group 1: Overall Information - The research report is from the Non - ferrous Team of the Research Center on November 27, 2025, covering copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices rose first and then fell slightly. Downstream consumption has been weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts for copper downstream is ongoing. The LME copper had concentrated warehousing, suppressing the Cash - 3M spread. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the scrap copper subsidy policy in Jiangxi has loosened slightly. The downstream's willingness to place orders rebounds around 85,000 yuan, which may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] - The changes from November 20 to November 26 include a 5 - unit increase in spot premium, a 70 - unit increase in scrap - refined copper price difference, a 74.73 - unit increase in spot import profit, an 86.48 - unit increase in three - month import profit, a 425 - unit increase in LME cancelled warrants, and a 75 - unit decrease in LME inventory [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices continued to decline, and aluminum ingot inventories remained flat. Aluminum rods, sheets, strips, and foils saw slight inventory reduction. Downstream consumption is okay, and the acceptance of high prices has increased. In the short term, it may show a volatile trend. Overseas and domestic production capacities are gradually being put into operation. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] - From November 20 to November 26, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices decreased by 40, 40, and 30 respectively. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2000, and the aluminum LME cancelled warrants decreased by 2000 [1][25] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The new production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots started in November, with a monthly output of about 8,000 - 10,000 tons. In December, the maintenance of most smelters is expected to reduce production by more than 10,000 tons. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity, and the positive arbitrage opportunity for 01 - 03 [5] - From November 20 to November 26, the Shanghai zinc ingot price remained unchanged, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 20, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 10, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1925, and the LME zinc cancelled warrants increased by 2450 [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, the price of nickel sulfate is relatively firm, and the output of pure nickel has decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is generally weak. After the price decline, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has strengthened slightly. Both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals are weak. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [8] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 950, the Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 200, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 100, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1038, and the LME nickel cancelled warrants increased by 630 [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the production schedule of steel mills in October increased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory is at a high level. Fundamentally, it remains weak. The Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [10] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25 [10] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fell, and the sales situation improved. On the supply side, the recovery of recycling profits has stimulated resumption of production, and the production of primary lead remains at a high level. The supply is loose. On the demand side, the battery production rate remained flat this week, and the monthly battery inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the social inventory has started to increase. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, ranging from 17,100 to 17,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries [11][13] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot premium decreased by 10, the spot import profit increased by 61.97, the futures import profit increased by 52.91, the LME lead inventory increased by 400, and the LME lead cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [11] Group 8: Tin - This week, the center of tin prices rose. On the supply side, the processing fee at the ore end remains low, and the rebound space is limited. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. There are still differences in the output overseas. In the short term, the fundamentals are okay, mainly following the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will mainly show restorative growth with limited elasticity, and the demand will determine the upside space. It is recommended to hold at low prices close to the cost line or use it as a long - position in non - ferrous metals [16] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot import profit decreased by 4181.61, the spot export profit increased by 3654.24, the LME tin inventory increased by 40, and the LME tin cancelled warrants increased by 105 [16] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, while some factories in Inner Mongolia and Gansu resumed production. In late November, Sichuan and Yunnan may reduce production by about 20 units. In Q4, the supply - demand of industrial silicon is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operating rate is low. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [19] - From November 20 to November 26, the 421 Yunnan basis, 421 Sichuan basis, 553 East China basis, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 60, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 289 [19] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - Affected by the expected lithium - battery demand and market sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong before. After the exchange adjusted the transaction handling fee and trading limit, the market sentiment declined significantly. The resumption of production of mines in Jiangxi also affected the market. The raw material supply is still tight, and the profit margin of the smelting end is small. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and downstream inquiries have decreased. After the price decline, some downstream enterprises have started post - point - pricing. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [21] - From November 20 to November 26, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price both increased by 750, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 435 [21]
永安期货有色早报-20251127
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-27 03:00