大越期货菜粕早报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound oscillations [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures have declined, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly. The spot premium has shown slight fluctuations, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has also fluctuated slightly [17][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bullish, the price trend on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to return to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 18th to 26th, rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price followed the fluctuations. The spot premium showed slight fluctuations [15][17]. - From November 17th to 26th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [16]. - There are no ship arrival schedules for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [22]. - Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero [24][26]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data analysis is provided other than the information that the main long positions have increased and funds have flowed out, which is considered bullish [9].