大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is neutral [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations driven by news. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,620 - 96,380 [13][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. October imports were 23,881 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase [8][13]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][13]. - Inventory: Total inventory was 118,420 tons, a 1.70% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 26,104 tons, a 7.66% decrease; downstream inventory was 44,436 tons, an 8.89% decrease; other inventory was 47,880 tons, a 10.25% increase [9]. - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 was 88,224 yuan/ton, a 0.31% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,549 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 was 90,365 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 1,850 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was generally higher than the ore - end cost, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins [13]. - Market indicators: On November 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,540 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions [13]. - Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from the ore and salt - lake ends, with limited decline [14][15]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price changes: The price of lithium carbonate and related products showed various fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium carbonate (6%) increased by 4.31% to 1,113 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.81% to 92,800 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.31% to 88,224 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [22]. - Demand - side data: The monthly operating rate of the lithium battery industry increased, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 10.66% [22]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and production: The price of lithium ore showed fluctuations over time. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica also changed year - on - year [29]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [31][33]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the monthly production showed different trends. The monthly production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed [35]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization and production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [42]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends over time [47][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, production, and loading volume: The price, monthly production, and monthly power battery loading volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance from 2024 to 2025 also showed different situations each month [63][66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and penetration rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [82][83].