广发期货日评-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment in Q4, with limited downside risks and a structural recovery in the technology sector. The index has initially stabilized but with shrinking trading volume, so it is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [3]. - The short - term weak market sentiment in the bond market may continue. Potential drivers to break the oscillation include the implementation of new regulations on bond fund redemption fees, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - Gold prices have broken through the previous resistance and are expected to rise further above $4200. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and is relatively strong due to tight inventories. For platinum and palladium futures, on the first trading day, it is advisable to cautiously go long on PT2606 around 405 yuan, with the upper resistance around 425 yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - Stock Index: TMT has a structural recovery, and the index has stabilized with shrinking volume. It is recommended to wait and see and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [3]. - Treasury Bonds: Multiple negative factors have led to a decline in bond futures. The short - term weak sentiment may continue. Wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices are expected to rise further, silver is relatively strong, and for platinum and palladium futures, there are specific trading suggestions [3]. - Shipping Index (European Line): The short - term trend is weak [3]. Black Sector - Steel: The raw materials are weak, and steel prices maintain an oscillating trend. Close short positions and pay attention to support levels [3]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates within the range of 750 - 820 [3]. - Coking Coal: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1050 - 1150, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - Coke: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1550 - 1700, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - Copper: The main contract is expected to trade between 85500 - 87500 [3]. - Aluminum Oxide: The main contract is expected to run between 2700 - 2850 [3]. - Aluminum: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 21300 - 21800 [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The main contract is expected to run between 20500 - 21000 [3]. - Zinc: The main contract is expected to trade between 22200 - 22800 [3]. - Tin: The previous long positions can be held, and the strategy is to go long on dips [3]. - Nickel: The main contract is expected to trade between 116000 - 120000 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract is expected to oscillate narrowly between 12300 - 12700 [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon: It is in a high - level oscillation, with a range of 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton, and cautious trading is recommended [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The intraday volatility has increased significantly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Chemical Sector - PX: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [3]. - PTA: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the monthly spread can be positively arbitraged at low levels [3]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand is loose in November, and the processing fee is expected to decline. It is recommended to shrink the processing fee [3]. - Ethanol: It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread can be reverse - arbitraged at high levels [3]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the rebound is under pressure [3]. - Styrene: It may oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [3]. - LLDPE: Wait and see due to weak overall trading [3]. - PP: There are many unexpected maintenance events, and the downside space is limited. Close short positions [3]. - Methanol: The port market is strong, and the MTO spread of the 05 contract is expected to narrow [3]. - Caustic Soda: It is expected to run weakly [3]. - PVC: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and it oscillates at the bottom. The strategy is to short on rebounds [3]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and hold short positions [3]. - Glass: The cold - repair of Hubei production lines has driven a rebound. Close previous short positions and pay attention to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - Natural Rubber: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates. Wait and see [3]. - Synthetic Rubber: The upside is under pressure. The medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and consider the spread of long RU2601 and short BR2601 [3]. Agricultural Sector - Meal: It oscillates narrowly, waiting for new trading themes [3]. - Hog: There is still supply pressure. Hold the inter - month reverse spread [3]. - Corn: The spot market shows regional differentiation, and the price has fallen after rising. It oscillates narrowly [3]. - Oilseeds: It has rebounded slightly, and pay attention to the risk of subsequent pullbacks. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 in the short - term [3]. - Sugar: The prospect of increased production exerts pressure, and it oscillates at the bottom [3]. - Cotton: The US cotton export data is positive, and it oscillates with an upward bias [3]. - Egg: The capacity reduction is slow, and the supply is still loose. Close previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [3]. - Apple: The demand for stored apples is average, and it may run weakly around 9500 in the short - term [3]. - Jujube: The prices in the production areas have weakened, and it oscillates at a low level [3].