瑞达期货苹果产业日报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,529 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,777; the main contract position is 10,687 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 116,106 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 21,069 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70, semi - second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, first - grade goods) is 4 yuan/jin, all with a week - on - week change of 0 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 766.75 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.41 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.54, with no week - on - week change; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.58, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly export amount of apples year - on - year is - 14.3%; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is - 5.8%; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.71 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.37 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.78 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22 yuan/kg; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2 vehicles, with no week - on - week change; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16 vehicles, with no week - on - week change; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 23.8 vehicles, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 1.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.51%, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.27% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of November 27, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas is 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from last week; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 54.11%, a decrease of 0.18% from last week; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 58.44%, a decrease of 0.66% from last week; apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, with ground transactions gradually ending and limited inventory transactions; in Shandong, ground transactions are in the final stage, with some areas like Qixia still having a small amount of storage, and some special varieties like Cream Fuji ending their storage; in Shaanxi, storage is basically over, and the area has started to transfer to outbound storage, with northern Shaanxi mainly supplying self - stored goods by merchants, some small - scale goods for foreign trade channels, and southern Shaanxi mainly purchasing from fruit farmers, with better transactions than in northern Shaanxi, and part of the goods going to the second - and third - level markets and part being purchased by Shandong merchants; the performance of the sales area market is average, and attention should be paid to the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market [2]