瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the U.S. corn harvest is nearly finished, with high supply pressure and relatively loose global and U.S. soybean supply - demand, suppressing international corn prices. In China, in the Northeast, low - temperature is conducive to new grain storage, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the tight transportation capacity restricts the outward movement of grain, supporting the bottom price. With the recovery of processing profits and the increase in the start - up rate, the consumption of corn is increasing, and the purchase prices of deep - processing and feed enterprises are rising. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the quality of new grain varies, the selling rhythm of farmers is slow, and the market trading is inactive, with the purchase prices of enterprises slightly adjusted. The corn futures price is generally in a strong shock, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [2]. - For corn starch, as the supply of raw corn is abundant with the increase in new - season corn listing, and the industry start - up rate is rising, the supply - side pressure increases. However, the downstream demand is good, and after the large increase in tapioca starch price, some downstream customers turn to corn starch, increasing the demand. The starch inventory of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and the futures price has risen in tandem with the corn market, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2243 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2572 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 21 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - Futures positions (active contract): 968502 lots for yellow corn, down 29094 lots; 243202 lots for corn starch, up 1454 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 182690 lots for corn, up 2936 lots; - 33837 lots for corn starch, up 2936 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 62515 lots for yellow corn, down 3000 lots; 10195 lots for corn starch, down 500 lots [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 369 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 446.25 cents/bushel, up 8 cents; total CBOT corn positions (weekly): 1596361 lots, up 46302 lots; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): - 92353 lots, down 11046 lots [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2325.29 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2590 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; free - on - board price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged; CIF price of imported corn: 2021.13 yuan/ton, down 3.85 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 0 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis of the corn starch main contract: 39, up 35; basis of the corn main contract: 82.29, up 1.02; spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly): 454 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; spread between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 427.11 million hectares, up 1.85 million hectares; forecasted yield of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 295 million hectares, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million tons, unchanged; forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 272.7 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 134 million tons, up 10 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 106.9 million tons, down 4 million tons; monthly import volume of corn: 6 million tons, up 2 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 12.78 thousand tons, down 2.02 thousand tons; monthly output of feed: 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 26.23 days, up 0.62 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 138.31 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; alcohol enterprise start - up rate (weekly): 69.45%, up 2.16%; starch enterprise start - up rate (weekly): 61.38%, up 0.49%; corn starch processing profit in Shandong (daily): 8 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch processing profit in Hebei (daily): 107 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch processing profit in Jilin (daily): - 3 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.05%, down 0.02%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 8.5%, up 0.02%; implied volatility of at - the - money call option of corn (daily): 12.81%, up 1.99%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option of corn (daily): 12.81%, up 1.99% [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect that the net sales volume of U.S. corn exports in the week ending October 16, 2025, for the 2025/26 season is between 1.4 million and 2.5 million tons [2]. - Dr. Michael Cordonnier, a crop expert, says that the 2025/26 corn yield in Argentina is expected to be 54 million tons, higher than the 53 million tons predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture [2]. Key Points to Watch - The weekly consumption of corn and the start - up and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]