建信期货铜期货日报-20251128

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The copper price is still expected to rise. The domestic social inventory is accelerating the destocking process, and domestic and foreign spot prices are supportive of the copper price. The market is also continuously trading on the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper rose slightly, with the main contract closing at 86,990. Overnight, the overseas market continued to trade on the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, driving up the copper price. The spot price rose by 430 to 87,085 during the day, and the spot premium rose by 25 to 105. The domestic social inventory decreased by 0.7 tons this week and 2.1 tons compared to last Thursday. The import loss of spot copper was nearly 1,000 yuan, and subsequent imported supplies will continue to decrease, driving domestic destocking. The C - L spread has widened again, supporting non - US spot prices [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts that the global copper market will face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2026, and the growth rate of copper production is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025 [12]. - A London Metal Exchange (LME) executive said that due to the uncertainty of US copper tariff policies, the COMEX copper price will remain higher than the LME copper price in the next 18 months. The spread between COMEX and LME has led to a continuous loss of LME inventory, and copper inventory is shifting to COMEX warehouses. COMEX copper inventory exceeded 400,000 short tons for the first time this Monday [12]. - Aya Gold&Silver announced strong mineralization intercept results from the latest drilling at its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco and discovered a new high - grade parallel structure. The company holds an 85% stake in the project and plans to build 6 open - pit mines and 3 underground mines with a target daily ore processing capacity of 8,000 tons [12][13]. - The Canadian government has launched a national security review of the proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources. The review will focus on the impact of the transaction on key minerals and related supply chains. Copper is listed as a key mineral in Canada. The two companies have promised to invest approximately C$4.5 billion in five years, but most of the investment was previously announced by Teck Resources. Anglo American also proposed to relocate its global headquarters from London to Vancouver and rename itself "Anglo Teck" [13].